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Quick take: The latest text sees no significant new changes on the mitigation elements, and slightly improves the adaptation elements (clearer baseline of 2019 for doubling adaptation finance, and confirmation of the new 'Glasgow-Sharm el Sheikh work programme for the global goal on adaptation) - HOWEVER the main sticking point of loss and damage has seen a new proposal for a series of dialogues on finance with no clear sense of how this would lead to outcomes or deliverables (and does not contain the developing country proposal for a facility for loss and damage finance)
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**Analysis based on texts released 13.11Quick takeComments - changes since 12/11
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Mitigation ambition accelerator
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Recognition of the gap between current NDCs and pathway limiting warming to 1.5CKeeps recognition of need to reduce non-CO2 gases; keeps removal of reference to '2100' (which implied overshoot of 1.5C)
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Pre-2030 ambition work programmeTo be developed at SBs (June 2022) and adopted at COP27; keeps focus on implementation as well as ambition
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Enhanced NDCs ahead of the Global Stocktake before 2023Keeps "Requests" [rather than "urges"] parties to revisit and strengthen 2030 targets by 2022 (with same reference to national circumstances)
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Accelerate domestic mitigation measuresSame language on need to collectively reduce emissions through accelerated domestic measures
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NDC & LTS synthesis reportAnnual NDC synthesis report to be presented at COPs but only 1 LTS synthesis report for COP27 (and no combination of NDC & LTS synthesis report, which could highlight the inconsistencies/differences/lack of alignment between them)
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Trigger for revisions of long-term strategiesUrges those who haven't done so to submit LTS by COP27 - but reference to pathways with 'plans and policies' removed from para 32 (old 33) [same as before]
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Recognition that enhanced support for developing countries will support higher ambition in their actions
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High level political event "hooks" to motivate raised ambitionAnnual high-level ministerial round table on pre-2030 ambition beginning at COP27 [same as before]
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Call for long-term (net-zero) strategies and aligned NDCs No strong link of NDCs (2030 targets) to long-term strategies (2050+ targets) [only 'notes importance' of doing so]
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Reflect sectoral pledges in future NDCs (for credibility)Absent [no change]
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Recognize the need to support countries in their just and renewable energy transition Included though the need to mobilize at-scale finance could be stronger "the need to ensure a just transition towards a low-carbon future ... including through the alignment of financial flows with the Paris Agreement, deployment and transfer of technology, and provision of appropriate support to developing country Parties;"
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Reference to UNSG summit on the pathway for accelerated mitigation
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Financial support for creating Long-term strategiesAbsent [no change]
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Reference to fossil fuels / coalDespite broad pushback from LDCs/SIDS and LatAm Countries still inludes the qualifier "inefficient" [weak] and language rephrased so it is now about "efforts towards coal phaseout" [rather than accelerating the phaseout itself] - but now does include a half sentence on support needed for just energy transition & language on energy efficiency
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Adaptation accelerator
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High-level political "hook"/event (i.e. ministerial roundtable) for agreeing the Global Goal on AdaptationAbsent - no strong process for more regularly engaging with adaptation issues at political level
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2 year work programme to operationalise the global goal on adaptation2-year WP to start immediately after COP26 - 'Glasgow Sharm El Sheikh Work Programme'
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Synthesis report on progress on adapation goalAbsent
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Adaptation finance accelerator
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Notes that only 1/4 of climate finance goes to adaptation and less than 1/2 to LDCs and SIDSAbsent
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Double adaptation finance (2019 levels) by 2024 to achieve a balanceConcretized with a baseline (doubling of adaptation finance provision from 2019 levels by 2025)
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Adaptation finance through grantsAbsent
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Loss & damage action
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Note loss and damage already happening and the impact on developing countries
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Committment to put capacity/resources behind the Santiago NetworkRequests developed countries to provide resources and funding for operation of the Santiago Network (i.e. not L&D finance)
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Synthesis report on sources of finance for loss and damage and the scale of impactsAbsent [no change]
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Finance mobilised for loss & damage***Absent [no change]
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Political "hook" for loss & damage action (e.g. 'Glasgow L&D Facility')Commitment to 4 workshops on loss and damage finance from 2022-2024 - but no commitment to G77 L&D Facility and unclear how this process would deliver an outcome or deliverables
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Finance
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Note shortfall in meeting $100bn annual climate finance goal"Notes with deep regret" that $100 has "not yet been met"
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Do something about shotfall, i.e. Commit to exceed the $100bn in climate finance on average from 2020-2025Urges developed countries to fully deliver the $100bn through to 2025
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Post-2025 finance goal process to keep pathawys open to address ada/L&D/accessCurrent draft text [still under negotiation] outlines a 2 year work programme but does not specify potential elements of the goal
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Annual high level dialogues on mobilising financial flows for pre-2030 mitigation and adaptationHigh level roundtable on pre-2030 ambition but no reference to financial flows (nor adaptation)
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Note increased debt levels due to external shocks as barrier to debt-based climate finance"Notes with concern"
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Revise eligibility criteria for international concessional finance taking multidimensional vulnerabilities into account"encourages" relevant multilateral institutions to consider how climate
vulnerabilities should be reflected in the provision and mobilization of concessional financial resources and other forms of support, including Special Drawing Rights
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Recognise need to enhance technical assistance and capacity building for finance mobilisationMissing
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Work to align and scale MDBs finance to trillions consistent with the needs of the Paris Agreement Doesn’t clearly reflect the crucial role of MDBs (incl in leveraging private fianncefinance) for advancing the just energy transition - text strongly links it to adaption - though adaptation requires primarily public finance
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Recognize the need to end fossil fuel subsidies Text broadens to reference energy transitions and scaling up power generation - BUT at the cost of clear reference to all coal + ff subsisides (added familiar G20 qualifiers "unabated" coal and "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies)
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Reference to relevant external processes (IMF, G7, etc)Missing (though reference to Special Drawing Rights - see above)
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Cross-cutting
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Implement mitigation and adaptation commitments on regional, national and sub-national levelsSome references on their role in L&D and adaptation
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Just transitionWeaker reference to 'plans and policies' for just transition [only refers to a 'pathway'] but now referenced in the section on coal/fossil subsidies
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Clear recognition of the role of human rights & nothing that undermines human rightsClear link on ACE to rights
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Clear recognition of the role of nature 'Nature-based solutions' have been removed as a concept (which insufficiently linked nature and climate) and has language on conserving biodiversity & its role in reaching temperature goals + reference to environmental and social safeguards + commitments on oceans workshops
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Clear recognition of the role of youthInvite to host Youth Climate Summits every year & urges meaningful youth participation
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Paris Rulebook
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Transparency - flexible, universal system with continuous progress towards full implementation and enforcement, with no backslidingAnalysis of text pending
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Article 6 - social and environmental integrity prioritised over resolution at any costIndependent grievance mechanism established + credits from REDD+ projects no longer permitted [notoriously difficult to prove their environmental benefit]
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Article 6 - no double countingCorresponding adjustments applies across 6.2 and 6.4. The previous proposed two tier system of authorised and support units has been dropped, so only authorised units exist and corresponding adjustments apply meaning they can’t be double counted
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Article 6 - no carryover from Kyoto Protocol Allows carryover from projects accredited as of 2013 (not good - the earlier the year, the bigger the carryover)
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Article 6 - markets as a reliable source of adaptation finance
5% share of proceeds to adaptation under 6.4 but voluntary under 6.2
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Common Time Frames - 5 years run-times for next round of NDCs
5 year timeframes agreed - but only 'encourages' rather than 'decides parties shall' [weak] (5 year timeframes = new NDCs submitted in 2025 for targets in 2035 rather than 2040 would allow for more regular updating) - risk is that countries ignore this encouragement
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***e.g. scale resources for global humanitarian capacity; debt cancellation or swaps by IFIs for countries impacted by loss and damage (including through SDRs in the IMF)
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