A second draft of the outcome of the Cop26 climate summit has been published. It will be subject to many further revisions before the final outcome is published, probably on Saturday or even Sunday.
Key provisions are still in there, including one calling for countries to return to the negotiating table next year because current targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the tougher of two goals in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
There is also a reference to phasing out coal and fossil fuel subsidies, which has not been substantially weakened, though some civil society groups have complained that it should be stronger.
Here are some of the key points:
I. Science and urgency
1. Recognizes the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policymaking;
The first draft began with just “science” but the second draft has added “and urgency” – that’s a strengthening that might easily go unnoticed.
This is the very first paragraph after the preamble, and it’s easy to overlook but it really is very important. The best available science is at the core of the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change and of the 2015 Paris agreement. And the best available science has changed notably since 1992, and since 2015.
The Paris agreement contains two key goals: to limit global temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, and to “pursue efforts” to limit heating to 1.5C.
In October 2018, at the behest of the 2015 Paris climate summit, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the global authority on climate science – produced a special report on what 1.5C would mean. That report found serious damages from 1.5C of heating, including the inundation of some low-lying areas by sea level rises and storm surges; an increase in extreme weather such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and intensifying storms; an accelerated melting of ice that could rapidly become irreversible; and the die-off of coral reefs.
The world is currently at about 1.1C of heating and the increase in extreme weather around the world is already apparent.
So the reaffirmation of “the best available science” is one of the key ways for negotiators to focus attention on the tougher 1.5C goal, rather than the upper “well below” 2C limit, without being accused of trying to reopen the Paris agreement. Christiana Figueres and Laurence Tubiana, two of the three architects of the Paris agreement, told the Guardian that to be guided by the science was at the core of the Paris agreement and must be at the core of any outcome from Glasgow.
3. Expresses alarm and utmost concern that human activities have caused around 1.1 °C of warming to date, that impacts are already being felt in every region, and that carbon budgets consistent with achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal are now small and being rapidly depleted;
Again, a small change but interesting: the previous draft noted “alarm and concern” – that was quite strong, but it has been upgraded to “utmost concern”. And there’s an additional reference to the carbon budgets being “small”; that wasn’t there before.
Some of these words may not make it into the final text, but the tactic of beefing up the science and concern is consistent with the desire of many countries to focus attention on 1.5C and the sense of urgency that is needed to bolster their insistence that negotiators must come back next year with strengthened national plans on emissions (known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs).
II. Adaptation
6. Notes with serious concern the findings from the contribution of Working Group I to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, including that climate and weather extremes and the adverse impacts on people and nature will continue to increase with every additional increment of rising temperatures;
7. Emphasizes the urgency of scaling up action and support, including finance, capacitybuilding and technology transfer, to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change in line with the best available science, taking into account the priorities and needs of developing country Parties;
8. Welcomes the adaptation communications and national adaptation plans submitted to date, which enhance the understanding and implementation of adaptation actions and priorities;
9. Urges Parties to further integrate adaptation into local, national and regional planning;
10. Requests Parties that have not yet done so to submit their adaptation communications in accordance with decision 9/CMA.1 ahead of the fourth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement so as to provide timely input to the global stocktake;
11. Recognizes the importance of the global goal on adaptation for the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement, and welcomes the launch of the comprehensive two-year XX work programme on the global goal on adaptation;
The section on adaptation has been much expanded from the initial text. This is good for developing countries, whose key concerns are adaptation and finance. They still regard this text as insufficient, but the crucial “balance” – how much weight the concerns over adaptation and finance are given, compared with obligations on reducing emissions (known as mitigation) – is improved in this draft.
Setting up a work programme may seem feeble and “can-kicking”, but in the context of the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement it means the issue becomes a focus of attention, with proper accountability for progress within the process, and an assurance that all parties will have their view heard.
18. Urges developed country Parties to at least double their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing country Parties from the current level by 2025 as a step towards achieving a balance between mitigation and adaptation in the provision of scaled-up financial resources, recalling Article 9, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement;
The Guardian understands that some developed countries want to remove the reference to doubling climate finance for adaptation. But for developing countries this is a major concern. Most of the climate finance currently provided – which already falls short of the $100bn a year promised by 2020 – goes to projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as renewable energy, and goes to middle-income countries rather than the poorest.
Focusing on adaptation would direct more money to the poorest, and enable them to press ahead with vital resilience projects that are essential to safeguard them against the worsening impacts of extreme weather.
III. Mitigation
20. Reaffirms the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels;
21. Recognizes that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C and resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C;
22. Also recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century, as well as deep reductions in non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases;
23. Further recognizes that this requires accelerated action in this critical decade
The Guardian understands that some countries wanted to remove the entire section on mitigation.
Reaffirming the Paris goals is essential, and these words are consistent with the countries who want to focus attention on 1.5C. This text retains key language on how far emissions need to be cut this decade and underlines once again why action this decade is crucial.
This will bolster those who want to “keep 1.5C alive”.
28. Urges Parties that have not yet communicated new or updated nationally determined contributions to do so as soon as possible in advance of the fourth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;
29. Recalls Articles 3 and 4, paragraphs 3, 4, 5 and 11, of the Paris Agreement and requests Parties to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their nationally determined contributions as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal by the end of 2022, taking into account different national circumstances;
30. Also requests the secretariat to update the synthesis report on nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement annually, to be made available to each session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;
31. Decides to convene an annual high-level ministerial round table on pre-2030 ambition, beginning at the fourth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement;
32. Urges Parties that have not yet done so to communicate, by the fourth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, long term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies referred to in Article 4, paragraph 19, of the Paris Agreement towards just transition to net zero emissions by or around midcentury, taking into account different national circumstances;
33. Invites Parties to update the strategies referred to in paragraph 32 above regularly, as appropriate, in line with the best available science;
Countries are still being asked to come back next year to strengthen their NDCs. That is at the heart of this conference, and the slight change in language – from “urge” countries to return to “request” – is not a massive change in the context of the legalese used in the Paris agreement.
The crucial point here is that countries will have to return next year to scrutinise NDCs again, and there’s enough language around and about it to ensure that such scrutiny is in line with the 1.5C target.
Revisiting countries’ targets next year is absolutely essential, the three architects of the original Paris agreement have exclusively told the Guardian.
36. Calls upon Parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies and the adoption of policies for the transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up clean power generation and accelerating the phaseout of unabated coal power and of inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels;
Some activists have been angry that the language on coal and fossil fuels has been watered down. The previous text read simply: Calls upon Parties to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels;
However, the addition of a reference to “unabated” coal is not surprising. That’s the standard term used, in order to allow for countries to keep open the possibility of using carbon capture and storage technology to cut emissions from coal-fired power plants. It’s surprising that it wasn’t in the original, in fact.
As for “inefficient” subsidies – some countries argue that they need to be allowed to continue to protect their poor and most vulnerable citizens against high fuel prices, and that being unable to do so could cause serious hardship. Some NGOs regard this as a fig leaf, but these countries do have a point.
The important thing to note is that no Cop decision text has explicitly referred to a phase-out of coal or fossil fuel subsidies before, so it is surprising to many that this reference is still in. Fossil fuel producers are avid in protecting their interests, and the Cops run by consensus, so agreement has often in the past been held up by the work of fossil fuel producers behind the scenes.
V Finance, technology transfer and capacity-building for mitigation and adaptation
40. Urges developed country Parties to provide enhanced support, including through financial resources, technology transfer and capacity-building, to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation, in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention and the Paris Agreement, and encourages other Parties to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily;
Finance is the key sticking point for developing countries at these negotiations, and they are still hoping for more action on this.
There’s a small but significant addition to this text – the reference to developed countries needing to provide support to developing countries is standard, but “other parties to provide or continue to provide such support voluntarily”.
That means big economies that are still classed as developing, such as China, being encouraged to provide climate finance alongside the historically industrialised world.
VI. Loss and damage
61. Acknowledges that climate change has already caused and will increasingly cause loss and damage and that, as temperatures rise, impacts from climate and weather extremes, as well as slow onset events, will pose an ever-greater social, economic and environmental threat;
Loss and damage refers to the ravages of climate breakdown that are so severe they can’t be protected against or adapted to – for instance, the devastation caused by a hurricane or cyclone. For poor countries, this is separate to the need for finance for adaptation. But up to now, although loss and damage has been recognised as an issue at the talks, there has been now funding made available for loss and damage.
Cop26 is still only taking baby steps on this key issue for developing countries, and poor countries will want to see much more on this before there is a text they can fully support.
